Cramming for the Midterm

Those of you with a fondness for all things politic already know the inevitable truth about midterm elections. They're less a referendum on the newly elected President and more about wanting change in the Congress. Historically, every President in the last century has lost seats and more often than not, control of the Congress. In fact, only two Presidents in the last 100 years have gained or maintained seats during a midterm election, George W. Bush in 2002 and FDR in 1934. Most notable in recent years was the Republican landslide in '94 that swept Newt Gingrich and company to power with their "Contract For America" during Clinton's first term.

The pundits and the parties are already positioning themselves to look good or shunt blame as the case may be. Three of the races this year have already garnered national attention for their supposed importance to the White House. The gubernatorial races in NJ and VA and the NY 23 Congressional district were perhaps the most closely watched of all the races slated for November with the White House downplaying the significance of all three as to their relation to Obama.

The NY 23 race was more about the fracturing of the Republican party, with Scozzafava, the Republican, bowing out of the race last weekend "for the good of the party" and then a scant 48 hours later throwing her support to the Democrat, Bill Owens because "he best mirrors my own ideology.", she later claimed. This proves my point from a previous post that she is, at heart, a Liberal in a conservative district. This race says very little about Obama but quite a lot about the RNC machine's new penchant for appearing "mainstream" to woo the Independent voters. Much to the chagrin of the RNC, Independents seemed to like Doug Hoffman's message of fiscal conservatism so much so that they left Scozzafava in a distant third place once Hoffman entered the race.

The same is true for McDonnel in VA and Christie in NJ. Both ran as rock-ribbed, Reagan conservatives espousing lower taxes, more job creation and fiscal sanity where our national debt is concerned. One thing that must be said is that VA and NJ were solidly won by Obama in 2008, VA by 6 points and NJ by a whopping 15 points. Looking at it that way denotes a swing of 24 points in VA and 19 points in NJ. Most pundits agree that the big change is due in large part to the independent or unaffiliated voters who broke heavily for Obama in '08 and appeared to have changed their minds in short order, with the President in office for less than a year.

Historically, VA has always gone for the opposition party in the off year election but the right seems intent on assigning "Obama-fatigue" as the cause. Whether or not that's true remains to be seen. It looks more like the status quo on it's face but I think something must be said for Obama's inability to hold the state in his column. It would appear that the independents found enough wrong that they left him high and dry.

Not so easy to dismiss is the NJ race that left John Corzine out in the cold among voters who cited jobs, the economy and property taxes as their hot button issues this election year. Playing against the financial ruin the state appears to be in, Chris Christie swept into the state house with relative ease in a state that is notoriously blue at it's core. I guess when your taxes go up high enough, you become conservative after all. Either that or Corzine should have left out the fat jokes at Christie's expense.

Despite the spin the White House may put on this one, it hurts. Obama spent time and political capital on this race and to see it slip away does say something about his ability to keep the party faithful...faithful. Independent voters left him in droves and there were more than a few Democrat voters that jumped ship if exit polls are to be believed. Christie garnered 60% of the Independent vote and a staggering 8% of the Democrat vote, a number unheard of in recent times.

In a year when Obama has had little success in getting his agenda passed legislatively, a war in Afghanistan that seems to be slipping into chaos and an economy that shows few signs of improvement, losing NJ is yet another slap in the face to the boy king. It serves to highlight his personal approval numbers versus his agenda approval numbers.

People like him personally by a wide margin but his political agenda is leaving many independent voters cold. They voted for a centrist and got a wildly leftist ideologue instead. Call it sticker shock or buyers remorse but whatever the case, it does not bode well for the 2010 elections. It must be said that leading the country into a massive deficit expends political capital as well with the races in VA and NJ as hard, cold evidence of this truth.

Every red state Democrat must be doing some soul searching right now. In 2010, they'll have to choose between the President's agenda and their own political survival. Knowing his failure to enact health care reform with both houses of Congress in his pocket and allowing for the wild swing of independent voters, leaves them with a choice that few will make easily.

It's a foregone conclusion that Obama will lose seats in the midterm. Historical fact dictates this quite well. The real question is, will the results in VA and NJ sway the red state Democrats to distance themselves from his radical agenda to keep their jobs or will they fall on the sword to advance his legacy?

Only time, and independent voters can tell.