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Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Modern Mythology

myth: - noun, an unproved or false collective belief that is used to justify a social institution.

I remember learning Greek and Roman mythology in school. I was fascinated by the stories of heroic acts, divine intervention and dark powers. The Greek and Roman Gods seemed so...human. Flawed, imperfect and governed by their passions, they warred with each other and mankind. I secretly wished for them to be true and not just a collective belief. One could argue that there are no more great myths being written today.

That is...unless you count Washington D.C. and the storytellers we elect to run the country. They seem to be writing new myths every day with the ease and fluidity of Homer. I shall endeavor to relate to you their latest yarn entitled, "Cash For Clunkers".
It's a tale of greed, lust for power and a deceptive, God-like hero whose deeds rival those of Hercules and Achilles combined.

It all started on bright and sunny summers day on Olympus. Our hero, Obamacles, lay on his cloud wondering what he might do as a gift to the lesser humans on whom he had already bestowed his love and care.

"I know!", he said loudly to his scurrying minions, "I'll give them some money to buy new cars. When my children are happy, then I am happy!", he exclaimed gleefully and set about magically making 1 billion dollars appear. "This will do nicely I think." he said triumphantly.
He gave instructions to his servants, Barneyopholus, Doddocles and Reedera to spread the wealth around.
"Give this to my children, that I might shower them with my love!"
Away they ran, as fast as their little legs could carry them to trumpet the gifts of Obamacles to the poor, unwashed masses. Sadly, Obamacles did not know that his servants would run out of money before all his children could receive their gift. This made Obamacles very cross and in a loud and thundering voice he spake, saying, "WE NEED MORE MONEY!" ...and it was so.

Told like that, the "Cash for Clunkers" program (C4C) sounds almost peaceful and heraldic doesn't it? Told the way it's really happening just sounds sad and stupid though.

What can one say about the unqualified success of the C4C program that hasn't already been said? Quite a bit actually, considering the Pollyanna like coverage by the press and the lack of foresight in the original funding cap for this bill. As of this post, the House has approved an additional 2 billion dollars and it's fate is still pending in the Senate.

This begs an obvious question, allocated from where? From an already bloated Federal deficit? From the "automobile fairy"? If I lift up my pillow will I find 2 billion dollars under there? Let's just say I'm not holding my breath on that one. No, this will ultimately be paid for by you and I my friends in the form of higher taxes. That is, after all, the only way any government gets money since they produce nothing but layers of bureaucracy.

On it's face, the program seems to have nothing but the best of intentions but a closer look at the periphery reveals what we all know to be true about "feel good" legislation, that it is rife with unintended, negative and costly consequences. Let's break down the major points of this "feel good hit of the summer!"

Myth #1 "This program will spur new care sales which is good for the economy."

Edmunds.com's CEO Jeremy Anwyl had this to say about the program's inception and application,

As we noted earlier in July, over 100,000 buyers had put their purchase on hold waiting for the Cash for Clunkers to launch. Is it any wonder that showrooms filled and the government servers crashed when this backlog of buyers rushed to finalize their purchase?

Secondly, last week we published an analysis showing that in any given month 60,000 to 70,000 "clunkerlike" deals happen with no government program in place. In other words, the 200,000-plus deals the government was originally prepared to fund were barely above the "natural" clunker trade-in rate.

There's myth #1 exploded by a man with no political ax to grind at all. He works, in a roundabout way, for the auto industry so sales figures have no real meaning to him. He's simply watching the numbers and reporting them to the auto industry. They in turn use this information to help them determine car buying trends for the future. Whether this program succeeds or fails is irrelevant to him.

Myth #2 "We're taking low mileage cars off the road and replacing them with more fuel efficient models."

Let's go back to Mr. Anwyl again to reveal the simple truth of economics that the President and members of Congress don't seem to understand,

"Clearly, the sales frenzy of last week was inevitable. In fact, students of economic theory will quickly recognize the dynamics of a classic shortage. We have taken three to four months of normal activity and caused them to occur over a few days, as consumers rushed to not miss out.

What everyone fails to realize is that once this backlog is met, interest in the program will quickly fade.

As is the case, there is also an ironic unintended consequence. Car companies have reduced production levels as one response to this downturn. Shortages are developing -- particularly around clunker-favored fuel-efficient models. As these prices rise, non-clunker buyers will inevitably shift to less-efficient models, crushing one of the touted environmental benefits of C4C."

What he seems to be saying is a simple supply-side economic realty that most Liberals have no clue about. Even if this program has spurred sales which I seriously doubt, it has unwittingly removed most of the supply of the cars they were targeting to put on the roads from the available stock. The response dictates the outcome. Overload the system and then when automobile industry runs out of fuel efficient cars in stock, consumers will inevitably buy less fuel efficient cars to grab up all the "free money". I actually heard someone on a radio show refer to this plan as a "tax cut". I was mystified at the stupidity of this statement. Where, in heavens name, does he think that money is coming from? Obamacles magic wand?

Myth #3 "This program is good for the economy because it will spur job growth."

That myth is a throw away line used about everything the government says about why they need to take us deeper into debt. The stimulus bill hasn't done it yet. Most of that money is still sitting in a room somewhere unused so far. The ugly truth about the C4C program is that just below the surface are a host of thousands of after-market repair shops, small business owners, who have already seen a sharp drop off in the amount of work they would normally do. That's because the cars they would normally be repairing and the money gained is quickly drying up. Some have already started to lay off employees as a result and just below that level is the used parts business that will also ultimately be hurt by this boondoggle.

The most disturbing part of this fiasco is that the government, by offering this money to consumers, is essentially giving money back to car companies...IT ALREADY OWNS! We gave them money when we bailed them out. That failed and they went bankrupt anyway so we gave them MORE money when we bought them...and NOW we're giving another little perk for reasons only the President and his friends in the labor unions know for certain.

Do you seriously want me to give you MORE of my tax dollars now? What this reminds me of is Barney Frank saying that "All Americans deserve a house." and then setting about to destroy not only the housing industry but the economy as well. This is the housing bubble for cars simply put. It's another in a long line of promised "changes" to our country that bear no resemblance to the way the world really works.

If this level of rampant stupidity is allowed to continue, there will be no future for our children and grand children. There will be only government and slavery to a debt that we will never see the end of in our lifetimes.

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